Evaluating Conspiracy Theories

conspiracy theory - a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators

Evaluation Criteria

1. Occam’s Razor
2. Evidence Gap
3. Cui Bono
4. Size - Number of Conspirators
5. Duration of Conspiracy
6. Intentional vs Mechanistic (FAE)
7. Superhuman Conspirators
8. Non-falsifiability

Faulty evidence commonly cited by conspiracy theorists:

1. Documentation of projections/possibilities rather than actual events, e.g. Contrails vs MKUltra.
2. Depends on automatic misinterpretation, e.g. UFOs assumed to be alien.
3. Evidence of motivation alone is not sufficient. (See #6 above.) Typically: Assuming a fait accompli when actually some people are merely speculating about a possibility.
4. Junk science or misinformation.
5. Luddite mentality - assuming that a technology as such is evil, or can only have evil applications.

To be successful, a conspiracy must have:

1. A small number of conspirators
2. Immediate communication
3. A short timespan

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Bullshit Asymmetry Principle

"The amount of effort necessary to refute bullshit
is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Article:
Six Ways to Debunk Any Conspiracy Theory

Videos:
How to Judge Conspiracy Theories
Democracy of the Gullible

Anarchism

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