Evaluating Conspiracy Theories

conspiracy theory - a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators

conspiracy-theories

Evaluation Criteria

  1. Occam’s Razor
  2. Evidence Gap
  3. Cui Bono
  4. Size - Number of Conspirators
  5. Duration of Conspiracy
  6. Intentional vs Mechanistic (FAE)
  7. Superhuman Conspirators
  8. Non-falsifiability

Faulty evidence commonly cited by conspiracy theorists:

  1. Documentation of projections/possibilities rather than actual events, e.g. Contrails vs MKUltra.
  2. Depends on automatic misinterpretation, e.g. UFOs assumed to be alien.
  3. Evidence of motivation alone is not sufficient, per #6 above.

To be successful, a conspiracy must have:

  1. A small number of conspirators
  2. Immediate communication
  3. A short timespan


BullshitAP

Bullshit Asymmetry Principle

"The amount of effort necessary to refute bullshit
is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Article:
Six Ways to Debunk Any Conspiracy Theory

Videos:
How to Judge Conspiracy Theories
Democracy of the Gullible

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