Evaluating Conspiracy Theories

conspiracy theory - a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators


Evaluation Criteria

  1. Occam’s Razor
  2. Evidence Gap
  3. Cui Bono
  4. Size - Number of Conspirators
  5. Duration of Conspiracy
  6. Intentional vs Mechanistic (FAE)
  7. Superhuman Conspirators
  8. Non-falsifiability

To be successful, a conspiracy must have:

  1. A small number of conspirators
  2. Immediate communication
  3. A short timespan


Bullshit Asymmetry Principle

"The amount of effort necessary to refute bullshit
is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

How to Judge Conspiracy Theories
Democracy of the Gullible

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